Kazakhstan's crude oil production rose by 2% in May 2025, averaging 1.86 million barrels per day (bpd), despite OPEC+ efforts to enforce output limits among member nations. This increase follows a 3% production drop in April, which still exceeded the country’s OPEC+ quota. Kazakhstan attributes difficulty in adhering to quotas to the involvement of Western oil majors like Chevron and ExxonMobil, who operate major fields such as Tengiz.
The Tengiz field alone produced 932,000 bpd in early May and has reached its planned output level for the year. Although the country's May quota under OPEC+ agreements increased slightly to 1.486 million bpd, Kazakhstan still overproduced. The energy ministry reiterated its commitment to OPEC+ goals and pledged to offset excess production by reducing total output by 1.3 million bpd by April 2026. However, it emphasized prioritizing national interests over strict compliance.
Analysts expect output to stabilize around 1.8 million bpd, citing limited ability to reduce volumes due to the dominance of international corporations in the sector. The situation presents a challenge for OPEC+ as it seeks to manage global oil supply and stabilize prices. Kazakhstan's actions may prompt discussions within the group about enforcement mechanisms and the balance between collective agreements and national interests.
Kazakhstan's increase in oil production highlights the complexities of managing output quotas within OPEC+. The interplay between national priorities and collective agreements will continue to shape the dynamics of the global oil market.