A new scientific study warns that even at 1.5°C of global warming, sea level rise may trigger catastrophic inland migration, rendering adaptation efforts challenging. Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now largely drives sea level increases. Despite efforts to cap warming at 1.5°C—already nearly unattainable—sea levels could still rise by 1cm per year by century's end, outpacing the construction of coastal defenses.
The world is currently on course for 2.5°C to 2.9°C of warming, potentially surpassing tipping points for irreversible ice sheet collapse, which could raise sea levels by up to 12 meters. With 1 billion people living within 10 meters of current sea levels, the risks are urgent. A rise of just 20cm by 2050 could incur $1 trillion in annual flood damages for major cities. Researchers emphasize that even small reductions in warming can significantly delay sea level rise, providing vital time for adaptation and reducing human suffering.
The study draws from both contemporary data and past climatic episodes and concludes that continued ice sheet melt poses an existential threat to coastal communities worldwide. Adaptation becomes increasingly difficult as sea level rise accelerates.
The findings highlight the critical importance of immediate and sustained efforts to mitigate global warming and invest in adaptive infrastructure to protect vulnerable populations from the impending threats of sea level rise.