Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook on U.S. copper imports, raising its baseline tariff projection from 25% to 50%, reflecting growing expectations that the former president’s proposals will be enacted in full. The higher anticipated tariffs have already sent shockwaves through the copper market, with Comex futures prices spiking due to expected short-term import surges and long-term supply uncertainty. The forecast revision underscores the market’s growing sensitivity to political developments and trade policy speculation, which has intensified in the run-up to potential changes in the U.S. administration.
The higher tariff projection has prompted U.S. importers and traders to accelerate purchases, anticipating a rush to bring in supplies before the anticipated tariff implementation window, which analysts predict may occur by the end of July or early August. This preemptive behavior is expected to trigger a sharp rise in copper inventories, with warehouse volumes potentially increasing by as much as 200,000 to 300,000 tons in the coming quarter. The U.S. may soon hold nearly half the global copper inventory, an unprecedented buildup driven more by policy speculation than fundamental demand shifts.
Despite these developments, global copper prices are expected to remain relatively elevated. While Goldman Sachs predicts LME copper prices to stay close to $9,700 per metric ton by the end of the year, other firms forecast short-term corrections. The expected surplus in U.S. stocks could cause a temporary drop in domestic copper prices after the import rush subsides. Still, ongoing global infrastructure development, including renewable energy and EV-related projects, is likely to support international copper prices.
The anticipated tariff could reshape global supply chains, encouraging U.S. manufacturers to seek alternative domestic sources or rely on stored inventory, while exporters may shift their attention to other markets. As the U.S. attempts to bolster domestic mining and smelting capacity, questions arise about whether short-term protectionist measures can drive sustainable industrial expansion without introducing new inefficiencies and inflationary pressures.
While the 50% tariff could support U.S. producers and build strategic reserves, it risks introducing distortions into the market. Stockpiling ahead of policy implementation may lead to oversupply, price instability, and inefficiencies. The real impact will depend on how long the tariff remains in place, whether exemptions are introduced, and how producers and consumers adapt. The situation reveals how financial markets, policy, and logistics intersect to influence commodity flows and pricing behavior across borders.